经历了金融危机的经济大衰退，美国经济有所复苏，美联社经济专家分析经济将在第三季度有所恢复。

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本文出自美联社-经济将在第三季度上涨，昭示经济复苏(二)

"A frequent question is: ’What happens when your fiscal stimulus wears off?’" said Edward Yardeni, president and chief investment strategist at Yardeni Research. "I maintained that the recovery should be increasingly self-sustaining once businesses started to rebuild their inventories."

Many economists expect businesses continued to cut their inventories in the third quarter, but not as much as the second quarter’s record pace. Rebuilding stockpiles -- something that’s expected in the current quarter -- would boost GDP, but less severe cuts likely didn’t weigh down the economy as much in the July-September period.



Consumers, who cut spending in the second quarter, are expected to show a burst of energy in the third quarter. Some analysts predict consumer spending rose at a rate of at least 2 percent in the third quarter, with most of that going to buy new cars.

Auto sales were temporarily boosted by the government’s Cash for Clunkers program. It gave people a rebate of up to $4,500 to buy new cars and trade in old gas guzzlers. After the program ended in August, auto sales tanked again.

Another force expected to feed third-quarter growth is improved home sales, which have been helped by the government’s $8,000 tax credit for first-time home buyers. Congress is considering extending the credit, which expires on Nov. 30.



Even though the government reported Wednesday that new-home sales fell in September, some analysts think business investment in housing will actually turn positive for the third quarter, the first time that’s happened since the final quarter of 2005.

The collapse of the housing market led the country into the recession. Rotten mortgage securities spiraled into a banking crisis. Home foreclosures surged. The sector’s return to good health is a crucial ingredient to a sustained economic recovery.

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